Excavator stocks in the traditional manufacturing industry failed to attract market attention. However, on December 9th, a record of excavator sales hit a record high, once again allowing the capital market to focus on this industry that is closely related to the macro economy.
According to data released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 excavator manufacturers included in the statistics in November 2019 sold 19,316 excavators of various types, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%. The domestic market sold 17,159 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%; exports 2,157 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%. At the same time, the annual sales of excavators hit a record high again. In the first November of this year, the sales of excavators exceeded 210,000 units, which has surpassed the total sales of 203,000 units last year.
Industry analysts said to China Business News, “At present, the valuations of the top several listed construction machinery companies with better quality are at historically low levels. Combined with policy-based infrastructure investment planning, the sector’s prosperity in the next 1-2 years may be Will be promoted".
The industry recovers faster
Excavator, a very cyclical industry, is often regarded as the vane of macroeconomic development. In fact, both the machinery sector index and the industry's leading stocks have performed well this year. Wind data shows that since this year, the mechanical index once rose to 5694.72 points, a new high since March 2018. As of now, the index has increased by more than 25% during the year. Looking back on the development of the excavator industry in recent years, the sales volume has gone from peak to fall, and hit a new high this year. According to China Business News, a brokerage machinery industry analyst who did not want to be named, sales of excavators this year hit a record high, following 2016 The performance of the continuation of the post-industry recovery.
"From a long-term perspective, in 2014, excavators entered a period of decline after experiencing rapid sales growth in the previous years. After the introduction of relevant policies in 2015, real estate in third- and fourth-tier cities developed rapidly. And drove the excavator industry to achieve a positive growth rate in April 2016, and the growth rate has been rising since then." The person said. Wind data shows that in December 2017, the sector experienced a single month increase of nearly 90% year-on-year, which was the largest monthly increase in history. The above-mentioned analysts also pointed out that the strengthening of the government's countercyclical policies, the expansion of industry leaders' overseas market share, and the demand for replacement of old machines are also important factors driving the sales of excavators.
The reporter noticed that some research institutions took the service life of the machine as a reference and pointed out that the update of new and old machines is expected to continue to promote the recovery of excavators in 2020.
Dongxing Securities (11.480, 0.20, 1.77%) research report stated that the average number of hours of operation of stock excavators reached 8281 hours, and those with more than 8,000 hours of operation accounted for 50% of the stock. At present, the average number of operating hours of second-hand excavators produced in 2011 is 9417.25 hours. If 11,000 hours are used as the average elimination limit of stock excavators, the current work intensity of a single excavator is 1500 hours per year. Used excavators will reach the theoretical elimination value in mid-2020.
In this regard, the aforementioned person believes that “on the whole, the excavator industry itself has a certain degree of resilience. However, the industry is still in the recovery stage. As far as the signs of recovery are concerned, the recovery speed is fast, but it is not enough to conclude that the sector is comprehensive. Getting better."
Excavators also look at infrastructure construction. Excavators involve three sub-sectors: infrastructure, real estate, and mining. An analyst pointed out that the upward trend of the infrastructure construction industry has indeed reflected the steady trend of overall economic growth to some extent.
Looking forward to next year, he believes that from the perspective of the long-term economic growth trend, with the strengthening of counter-cyclical adjustments, infrastructure may continue to make efforts to drive the demand for construction machinery to maintain growth.
"Excavators must depend on infrastructure. We have noticed that in 2020, some special debt limits of 1 trillion yuan will be issued in advance and the capital ratio of fixed asset investment projects will be lowered. This is aimed at making precise efforts to make up for the shortcomings of infrastructure. .
At the same time, environmental protection, replacement of manpower, and replacement of new and old equipment can all stimulate the industry to accelerate recovery in all aspects," he said. "It should be noted that considering the overall economic growth trend, the 90% increase in excavators in a single month is Future 1~2
Nian should have no chance to appear. "
In addition, the overall recovery of the industry will also be mainly reflected in the performance of leading stocks. The data shows that the current industry
The market share of leading companies continues to increase. In 2019, all six companies with a market share of more than 5% achieved positive growth, while
Seven of the nine companies with a share of less than 1% had negative growth.
The aforementioned person pointed out, "The structural opportunities for engineering equipment are mainly concentrated in leading companies, such as Sany Heavy Industry.
Leading companies with stable performance growth, even if they face the overall downturn of the industry in the future, can still swallow other SMEs
industry’s market share while maintaining product sales. "
Judging from the three quarterly reports of industry giants, the leading stocks all achieved steady growth in performance during the year. Sany Heavy Industry 2019
In the first three quarters, net profit attributable to the parent was 9.159 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 90% over the same period last year. The three quarterly report of XCMG Machinery shows that the three quarters
The net profit margin of is 6.1%, an increase of 2.11 percentage points year-on-year, and the cash flow generated by the company’s operating activities in the first three quarters
The net amount was 3.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.48%.
Shanghai Securities Investment Consultant Zhao Xiaoli believes that the key to infrastructure construction is two points-projects and funds. He pointed out that neither direct financing nor indirect financing will be difficult. However, considering the maturity of the country's existing high-speed rail development, a larger-scale project may be needed to stimulate infrastructure demand.
He said, "Engineering equipment requires infrastructure, as well as the economy. From the perspective of building a strong transportation country, the construction of maglev trains in some key provinces and cities across the country is expected to become the main force driving infrastructure."
At present, local governments, Sichuan, Shandong, Hainan and other provinces have all proposed plans for magnetic levitation. Chengdu City, Sichuan Province recently proposed plans to reserve Chengdu-Chongqing ultra-high-speed maglev construction channels with a speed of 600 to 800 kilometers per hour; Shandong Province proposed a preliminary plan to build a maglev line between Qingdao and Yantai. In addition, Zhuzhou, Urumqi, Huangshan, etc. more than ten
Cities are also planning and constructing maglev rail transit.
